AnaMaria Arumi directs the exit poll desk for NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo and asked the question, would Obama have won anyway without young voters? After a state-by-state analysis removing the young voter demographic from the numbers, the only states that would have switched to McCain would have been Indiana and North Carolina. Obama still would have won the electoral vote.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27582147/
If you removed the Latino demographic from the numbers, New Mexico and Indiana would have switched to McCain and still Obama would have won the electoral vote.
However, if you removed the African-American demographic from the numbers, several states would have swung to McCain: Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia and, in that scenario, the electoral college would have favored McCain.
All of these scenarios are hypothetical, of course, as all these groups make up the fabric of the many states. But it is one way to identify which demographic was most critical to Obama's electoral college victory.
Friday, November 7, 2008
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2 comments:
Black people voted for Obama? That is crazy!
It's interesting that Pennsylvania would have gone to McCain but no mention of Ohio which was a swing state all along. I assumed that Ohio was won largely by inner city Cleveland, Columbus and Cincy. Sounds like that was not the case.
It was a hypothetical analysis to measure the importance of different demographic voting blocs in state-by-state versus straight national totals, which gives you a bit of a different sense.
Ohio also would have gone to McCain. But that is all hypothetical as I said. To win, Obama built a coalition of many groups of people and not simply young voters.
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